Domino's Pizza (Domino's Pizza) Predictability Rank

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What is Domino's Pizza Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Domino's Pizza Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Domino's Pizza (Domino's Pizza) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Domino's Pizza Inc (NYSE:DPZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DPZ:Mexico EZV:Germany EZV:Germany D2PZ34:Brazil DPZ:Austria

Address

30 Frank Lloyd Wright Drive, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 48105

Website

https://www.dominos.com

Domino's is a restaurant operator and franchiser with nearly 20,000 global stores across more than 90 international markets at the end of 2022. The firm generates revenue through the sales of pizza, wings, salads, sandwiches, and desserts at company-owned stores, royalty and marketing contributions from franchise-operated stores, and its network of 26 domestic (and five Canadian) dough manufacturing and supply chain facilities, which centralize purchasing, preparation, and last-mile delivery for the firm's U.S. and Canadian restaurants. With roughly $17.7 billion in 2022 system sales, Domino's is the largest player in the global pizza market, ahead of Pizza Hut, Little Caesars, and Papa John's.

Executives

Sam Jackson	officer: EVP, Human Resources	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Andy Ballard	director	ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 1350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Lisa V Price	officer: EVP, Chief Human Resources Ofc	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Cynthia A Headen	officer: EVP, Supply Chain Services	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Andrew Balson	director, 10 percent owner
Patricia E Lopez	director	333 LUDLOW ST, STAMFORD CT 06902
Joseph Hugh Jordan	officer: EVP, International	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
James A Goldman	director
Reddy Sandeep	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
Russell J Weiner	officer: President, Domino's U.S.A.	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Jessica L Parrish	officer: VP, Treasurer, Corp Controller	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Allison Richard E Jr	officer: President, Domino's Int'l	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Kevin Scott Morris	officer: EVP, Gen'l Counsel, Secretary	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Diana F Cantor	director	9201 FOREST HILL AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23235
Timothy P. Mcintyre	officer: EVP, Comm, Investor Relations	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105